Against the background of the deepest division in America's recent history, voters queued at polling stations in the United States
Against the background of the deepest division in America's recent history, according to analysts, voters queued at polling stations in the United States - the country most affected by the coronavirus pandemic. More than 99 million Americans voted in advance, either in person or by mail, and the total number of those who expressed their political choice exceeded the 138 million votes won by the Republican Donald Trump in 2016. Challenged by the incumbent president, Democrat Joe Biden's victory is set to be confirmed in the middle of next month, with the electors' vote, but the implications of the change of guard at the White House are already under the analysts' scrutiny.
Romanian political analyst Andrei Taranu talked on Radio Romania about the potential relaxation under the Biden administration: "Internally, in the United States, there will probably be an attempt to de-escalate the huge division that exists in American society and to try and resolve the tensions of a racial, social nature, related for example to the health care and education systems. Externally, it is still not very clear what to expect. Certainly, transatlantic relationships will improve, but we don't know how much. I think that the relationship with Romania is an already cemented relationship. I don't think bad things can happen to Romania, and good things are probably already unfolding. The Department of State, through the voice of the United States Ambassador to Bucharest, has said that there will be some massive US investments in transport, communications and roads infrastructure. And, from my point of view, the security policy of the United States will not change fundamentally. "
According to university professor Dan Dungaciu, to Donald Trump, everything that happened in the three decades before 2016 was a weakening of the USA. That's why, during his term, Trump has focused on a more inward-looking America, which does not consume its resources abroad, and from this perspective he has changed almost radically the paradigm of America's functioning at global level.
"Donald Trump's thesis on international relations was that for 30 years America spent trillions, trillions of dollars to be defeated, without victory in Afghanistan, without victory in the Middle East, and with the exception of Eastern and Central European states, it did not managed to attract almost anyone from the wake of the Euro-Atlantic world. The world built by America for 30 years, from Trump's perspective, was a world that drained America of resources, failed to resolve conflicts in the world, and, moreover, allowed America's enemies to grow and develop. It is interesting to see if Biden's America returns to the pre -Trump paradigm and resumes its foreign policy vision, in which the world turns into America and America becomes the liberal hegemon that has been for 30 years. What Biden will do from this perspective is interesting to watch, but from my point of view, America will not return to the period before Trump, we will witness an America that will no longer be interested in many of the issues that are fundamental to us, as Europeans."
China is America's rival and even its opponent on various issues - this is the Washington consensus between Democrats and Republicans, verbalised differently at the public level, and from this point of view nothing major will change, says Professor Dungaciu, according to whom the coming world order will build around this relationship between America and China.
"This will be the equation through which we will have to read the world and depending on it, we will relate to the strategic and even economic reality of the world to come. As for the relationship with the Russian Federation, it will be read also in the framework of the relationship with China. The Russian Federation is today in the situation China was in the 1970s. At that time the great confrontation was between America and the USSR. China played between America and the USSR. Russia is now in a situation where it is a third party in the battle between the big guys. The Russian Federation will be very careful not to make decisive gestures either in relation to China or in relation to America, which would be perceived as an absolute alliance, and from this perspective, we should expect a diplomatic game of the Russian Federation, starting from the hypothesis that it is no longer a great world player, but it can play its chances or maximize its smaller chances that it still, at least theoretically, has. This is the context in which the Russian Federation will count, just how the European Union will count, also as a minor player with regard to the dispute between America and China. A player that China, by no coincidence, is courting with much more diligence on the economic level of their bilateral relationship. "
According to Associate Professor Valentin Naumescu, there will a Trump legacy beyond his presidential term. He also be lives that the Biden administration stands all the good chances of rendering the relations between the US and the EU normal, and that is probably one of the most important immediate consequences of the US election:
"This, I'd dare say, the main benefit for Europe and even for the region that we are in, for the Central and Eastern Europe, because our interest is NATO, the alliance that provides the security guarantees that Romania and Europe in general need. It all depends on the quality, strength and credibility of the transatlantic relations, and these very relations have been seriously affected in the past 4 years. There are things that are hard to fix, that take time, and others that will no longer go back to where they started from."
Unavoidably, Professor Naumescu believes, certain political accents, concerns, some protectionist tendencies, either economically or with regard to winning global supremacy will continue and will be taken over by the next administration. (M. Ignatescu)