2020, an election year

The European Parliament election of May 2019 confirmed the Social-Democratic Party had been losing ground, at the time the National Liberal Party winning most of the vote. Under the heavy burden of their own mistakes, the Social-Democrats dropped from 45%, a figure they reported at the legislative election of 2016, to under 23%. The day following this failure, the Social-Democrats also lost their leader, Liviu Dragnea, sentenced to prison for corruption and deemed the man responsible for the party's sidetracking. His replacement, Viorica Dancila, a Prime Minister since January 2018, will go down in the dark history of the Social-Democratic Party as the candidate who won the fewest votes in a presidential runoff. In November, the acting president Klaus Iohannis secured a new term in office, winning 66% of the vote. 

Previously, the Liberal Party had grabbed another victory, namely removing the Dancila Cabinet from power and taking office. Thus Iohannis's winning the election marked the return of the Liberals in power. Still, the Social-Democrats still hold a relative majority in Parliament, which forced Ludovic Orban's Cabinet to take responsibility for a number of laws, including the state budget for 2020. The Liberals however will find it increasingly difficult to rule in the absence of a solid majority, which can only be obtained in an election. It is something that 2020 will decide. Now, more than ever, there is talk about early elections, which would favor the Liberals more than the Social-Democrats. In such a case the Liberals would get a fresh start at the end of a year in office, while the Social-Democrats would have little time to close ranks after the repeated blows they were dealt last year. Early elections entail a complicated and difficult process, constitutionally speaking. This is why no one fathoms such a scenario to eventually come through, says political pundit Alexandru Lazarescu.

"It's hard to believe we will get to that point. Of course, right now the National Liberal Party would get a better score as compared to the end of the year, when legislative elections are due, but it's complicated. So I believe the discussion is meant to keep the topic in the limelight, while it doesn't seem reasonable to think this will actually happen".

In mid-2020 Romania will also see local elections, which will hold an important stake as well. Mayors are currently elected in one round of elections, which raises serious questions about their representation. Large parties, the Social-Democratic Party first and foremost, but also the National Liberal Party, are favored by the current system, whereas smaller parties, Save Romania Union in particular, want to change the current legislation to increase their odds. The Liberals said they want the same thing, though many suspect they wouldn't be too bothered if the legislation stayed the same, which would certainly help them win the election in large cities currently under their political control. The biggest prize is, as always, Bucharest. Once a traditional fiefdom of the right-wing, the capital city is now under the full control of the Social-Democrats.

(Translated by V. Palcu)